Meta Analysis Wave 3 Teaser: Top 51 Hyperspace Lists

What are the most common lists that you have to be scared of? Which lists are good? Against what lists do you need a plan?

To answer this, I am using 34 Hyperspace trials with 70% or more lists filled in, and with at least 20 lists total. That adds up to 1402 lists with 5509 ships. 300 of these lists made it to cut, which was usually a top8 cut, and that means that a 21.4% conversion rate is the base conversion.

Lists around that value of 21.4% are in principle not good or bad, because that is how often they would advance to cut if they were advancing randomly. That is not entirely true though, because the field is made of different lists and a bad list will have a harder time against a better list. But it is close enough to be taken as threshold for “good”.

The following is what I usually do or will show as part of my “archetype” analysis. Keep in mind that these are simply based on ship combinations and not pilots! For example, I do not know whether a list of 2 X-wings +1 Y-wing list is Wedge, Luke and Dutch, or Porkins, Biggs and Horton.

With that out of the way:

There were 295 different combinations played. 67 of them (23%) made up 71% of all lists that were played (995/1402). Out of those 67, 58 made cut. Accordingly, 9 lists are popular but don’t make cut:

  • Infiltrator + 5 Vultures (14 times!)
  • 3 T65s (9 times)
  • XYAU (8 times) (?!)
  • ScumFalcon + 2Fangs (8 times)
  • Falcon+Xwing (8 times)
  • 3 T70 (8 times)
  • Belbullab + 5 vultures (7 times)
  • 5 TIE bombers (6 times)
  • Falcon+Xwing+Uwing (6 times)

The remaining 929 lists form 58 combinations and make up 232/300 lists in the cut (77%). Filtering for lists that made cut at least twice brings it down to 51 lists. All percentages are conversion rates! If you have a plan for those, you are golden. Alternatively you can look at the subset in bold, as they are with 25% a bit above the 21% conversion rate, and prepare for those 25 lists that perform well.

Galactic Empire (56/178, 31%)

  • 6 TIE Fighters (20/60, 33%)
  • Vader + Miniswarm (5/21, 24%), where the miniswarm is
    • 4 TIEs (3/15, 20%)
    • 3 TIEs + a striker (2/6, 33%)
  • TIE Salad (3/12, 25%)
  • Imperial Aces with Vader, Soontir, X (28/85, 32%), where X is
    • a reaper (3/24, 12%)
    • a striker (7/21, 33%)
    • 2 bombers (6/13, 46%)
    • another advanced (5/11, 45%)
    • 3 TIEs (2/9, 22%)
    • 1 bomber (5/7, 71%) (!!!)

Vader and Soontir are educated guesses, I didn’t actually check that it’s them.

Empire is mainly made of Swarms (60 lists) and the new archetype of Vader, Soontir and something on top (85 lists). Both types have a very good conversion rate of around 33%. The TIE Salad and the Miniswarm is also good,but by far not as popular (total 21 lists).

Looking at VaderSoontir + X, the obvious choice of a reaper is apparently not good. But there are three outstandingly good options with 1-2 bombers or another TIE advanced. Together, they have 52% conversion rate. That means if you and a friend bring that list to a trial then one of you will likely make cut. That is outright ridiculous! It also means all those saying Soontir won’t have any impact are shown to be flat out wrong.

First Order (19/72, 26%)

  • TripAces with SF, VN, FO at 4/15 (27%)
  • Silencer + 2 Upsilons (7/20, 35%)
  • Silencer, SF, Upsilon (3/21, 14%)
  • 3TIE + Upsilon (5/16, 31%) where the 3 TIEs are
    • 2 FO + 1SF (2/7, 29%)
    • 1FO + 2 SF (3/9, 33%)

The First Order is a bit of a sleeper hit. The popular lists add up to 72 (compare to the 60 TIE swarms or 85 Imperial Aces…), but three of the five lists have a great conversion rate! Interesting to point out that the list combining the three good pieces, /VN /SF and Upsilon, does worst. But a combination of just two of them is apparently always a good choice!

Separatists (9/62, 15%)

  • 2 Infiltrators (2/12, 17%)
  • 2 Infiltrators + Belbullab (2/11, 18%)
  • Command+Swarm (5/39, 13%), where the command ship + swarm are
    • Belbullab + 6 (2/22, 9%)
    • Infiltrator + 4 (3/17, 18%)

The RogerRogers are unfortunately rather sad. Whatever you do: don’t bring more than 4 Vultures. It is apparently not worth it as it barely or never makes cut.

Scum&Villainy (10/38, 26%)

  • 4 Fangs (2/11, 18%)
  • 2 Fangs + Starviper (4/9, 44%)
  • Firespray + Fang + Escapecraft (2/12, 17%)
  • Firespray + Starviper (2/6, 33%)

Another sleeper hit, Scum has now Starvipers. And they, like Soontir, were predicted to be without impact. And here, as with Soontir, such voices were wrong. Starvipers have become the common denominator between good Scum lists, whether with a Firespray or with 2 Fangs.

Rebel Alliance (78/270, 29%)

  • 4 Ship Rebel Beef (55/163, 34%) with the combination
    • XXXU (5/9, 56%)
    • XXYU (13/33, 39%)
    • XYYU (5/24, 21%)
    • XXBU (5/17, 29%)
    • YYYU (7/12, 58%)
    • YBBU (3/12, 25%)
    • XABU (3/11, 27%)
  • Falcon + 2 at 12/44 (27%) with the 2:
    • XY (6/18, 33%)
    • XX (3/14, 21%)
    • XA (3/12, 25%)
  • Trench Run (3 Rebels) at 5/36 (14%)
    • XXY (3/19, 16%)
    • XXU (2/17, 12%)
  • XXXX (4/13, 31%)
  • YYYYY (2/14, 14%)

Rebel Beef. 163 lists. That is basically as much as the previous three factions combined (172)! It is also clear that some versions are better than others: XXXU, YYYU and XXYU are the best of them! This is very surprising to me, as B-wings are allegedly better and were predicted to have a big impact and to replace X-wings as staples of the list. Funny to see how 5Y are doing rather poorly now. Maybe the good players moved on, maybe they have a hard time in the current meta, who knows?

Resistance (25/118, 21%)

  • 5 A (6/30, 20%) (sadface)
  • FourShip Resistance is at 12/63 (19%) with 3 combinations of X and A:
    • XXAA (8/48, 17%)
    • XAAA (2/9, 22%)
    • XXXA (2/6, 33%) (happyface)
  • XA Starfortress (2/12, 17%)
  • XXA Reistance Aces (5/13, 38%)

How the mighty have fallen! Once accused of being a Boogeyman like 5Y, the 5A-wings are now at just 20%. But the rest of the faction had an even harder time: The Resi5tance list with four i5 ships was once doing very well – and now dropped to 17%. Poe and 3 A-wings are not much better at 22%. But one list that I’m very happy about and that I had brought up 4 months ago is doing very well: the XXXA variation is among the best lists in the current meta. There are 18 lists with 33% or more, and this is one of them.

The one list that has not fallen at all is the XXA combination, most likely Poe Nien Lulo. These aces are doing very well at 38%, but just few people bring them anymore.

Galactic Republic (26/106, 26%)

  • 2 Jedi + X (15/61, 25%)
    • 1 ARC (7/32, 22%)
    • 2 Torrents (8/29, 28%)
  • 1 Delta + 2 ARCs (2/13, 15%)
  • Obi + 3 ARCs (7/18, 39%)
  • Delta + 2 ARCs + Torrent (2/8, 25%)
  • 2 ARCs + 4 Torrents (2/6, 33%)

The Republic has relatively diverse lists with just three ships. Those doing well are very different. I have not seen the RepublicBeef myself, but 2 ARCs and 4 Torrents bring a total of 38 HP to the field – a lot to chew through! A Delta with 3 ARCs is rather well known by now, and I would definitely struggle to play against it. It is also clear by now that Anakin and Mace are better off bringing two V19s along instead of an ARC. This is a lesson I will draw myself, too, and I will definitely try it as different Vaapad variation.

That is a lot of information at once. If you want a shortened version of the list:

  • 6 TIE Fighters (20/60, 33%)
  • Vader + 3 TIEs + a striker (2/6, 33%)
  • TIE Salad (3/12, 25%)
  • (Triple) Aces Vader, Soontir, X (28/85, 32%), where X is
    • a striker (7/21, 33%)
    • 2 bombers (6/13, 46%)
    • another advanced (5/11, 45%)
    • 1 bomber (5/7, 71%) (!!!)
  • Triple Aces SF, VN, FO at 4/15 (27%)
  • Silencer + 2 Upsilons (7/20, 35%)
  • 3TIE + Upsilon (5/16, 31%) where the 3 TIEs are
    • 2 FO + 1SF (2/7, 29%)
    • 1FO + 2 SF (3/9, 33%)
  • Triple Aces 2 Fangs + Starviper (4/9, 44%)
  • Firespray + Starviper (2/6, 33%)
  • 4 Ship Rebel Beef (55/163, 34%) with the combination
    • XXXU (5/9, 56%)
    • XXYU (13/33, 39%)
    • XXBU (5/17, 29%)
    • YYYU (7/12, 58%)
    • XABU (3/11, 27%)
  • Falcon + XY (6/18, 33%)
  • XXXX (4/13, 31%)
  • XXXA (2/6, 33%)
  • Triple Aces XXA (5/13, 38%)
  • 2 Jedi + 2 Torrents (8/29, 28%)
  • Delta + 3 ARCs (7/18, 39%)
  • 2 ARCs + 4 Torrents (2/6, 33%)

Keep in mind that this is just a description of past trials. More people picking up a list will usually lower the performance and thus conversion rate.

Until next time!

3 thoughts on “Meta Analysis Wave 3 Teaser: Top 51 Hyperspace Lists

  1. Evening.Thanks. This analysis is worth studying over and over. I seldom get to play having to travel some distance for a game or tournament . I wanted a FO list and have been trying it out on the fly casual simulator. So having the stats and advice really cuts down on testing time. Thanks again. Regards Nick Smuts, Heidelberg , Gauteng , South Africa.

    Like

    1. Thank you very much!
      Please keep in mind that this is over a month old, and was right before the rebel beef version with Cassian and Braylen became popular. There were several more Hyperspace Trials in the meantime.
      Unfortunately, I won’t be able to do another analysis until wave 4 is out. But the end-of-wave analysis is often more conclusive anyway.

      Like

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