Galaxies: Corellia

Currently, the first Corellia by Gold Squadron Podcast and Fly Better Podcast is ongoing. Yesterday was the swiss with 217 players, later today will be the top 32 cut.

We have no real feeling for the current meta, and this is the first large event. With nobody knowing what to expect, my own expectation is that we can’t conclude too much from this one event. I will keep doing these and hopefully we can compare once we have seen more games. So with that being said, here is a really small breakdown of the conversion rate and the different lists.

You can see here how many players started per faction. The total was 217, and 21% Scum means that 45 people tried their luck with Villainy. To highlight here are the small numbers for Separatists and Republic. Separatists has always been low, and there seems to be not much hope for the Republic at the moment. Resistance is pretty much where you’d expect it to be. One in seven factions is around 14%.

With that in mind, let’s look at the conversion rate. On the graph below you see three things. Blue is again the same number as above. The red bars are the ratio of players in cut to how many started – the cut conversion rate of a faction. And finally in green is the expected base conversion rate. 217 players going to a Top 32 cut means you expect 14.75% or roughly every 7th player to make it to cut – completely faction independent! If all matchups were perfectly balanced then that many would advance anyway, spread evenly accross factions.

There are now two things to notice: is the blue bar lower or higher than the red? And is the red bar lower or higher than the green line?

If blue is higher than red then the faction as a whole did not bring as many lists into cut as you’d expect. The larger the difference the worse it is – and conversely, if red is higher then the faction did advance more often than expected.
If red is higher than green then the individual lists in that faction had lucky matchups, had consistently better players, were lucky during the game, played better during the game, or overperformed in some other way.

There is one important caveat: due to small numbers, a faction like Republic looks worse than it is. Percentage wise yes, the red bar is far below green. But we expected 2-3 republic players in cut (2.65) and there were 2. That is perfectly normal then. The below graph lets you compare the ranges of expected players. The “error bar” is always the smaller of the following: expected players rounded down or expected players -0.5 for lower limit, and runded up and +0.5 for upper limit. The reason is that for example for imperial players, it does not make much sense to round up 6.04 to 7.

Ranges (“Error bars”) are to find the nearest whole numbers

It is always important to keep in mind how low the numbers are. But it is also interesting how close red and blue are for several factions. The massive outlier are clearly Separatists.

And finally, the different lists. The gray area shows to total points cost. The x-axis shows you the different list names. If you want to see details, look here:
https://tabletop.to/gsp-worlds-qualifier-corellia-pdtutc-7/lists

Opinion time: it is clear that Imperial Aces in various forms can still do well. There are some cool new lists that made cut, from FO salads to IG88s, Fenn+Gang, BBBBZeb as a reprise of a classic, and even triple E-Wings!

The needle-formed elephant in the room are the Spamtex lists though. I don’t think that they are a problem yet. Their performance so far can be explained by matchups, by their good players, and by the novelty factor – despite being out for quite some time already. Their performance definitely puts them on my watchlist. I expect them to become more popular, which usually drags down the performance. That should give all others enough practice against them to limit them even more.

Several lists are absent in my opinion. There is no Leia or Braylen in the cut. Only one Wookie+Sabine list shows us that they are maybe not quite as strong as the initial splash by the showcased match between Paul Heaver and Oli Pocknell had us believe. No droid list with 7-8 ships either, though Sear has his comeback. And a shocking absence of Boba or Kylo.

In conclusion: we can’t conclude anything so far. But this first tournament gives us an idea where to pay more attention for upcoming events. Could be a molehill or a mountain. Hopefully we’ll know by the time we approach Coruscant.

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