And the second Galaxies event is on, this time with the time zone of Dathomir, London, 5.-6. September. 172 players tried their luck and 32 made cut for later today.
Unlike Corellia, we had clear expectations: Spamtex, Sloane-lists, Imperial Aces. That was mostly what we see here in Dathomir, but we have also some surprises, to be sure, but welcome ones.
The outside ring is Dathomir, and the inside ring shows Corellia for comparison. The changes are mostly small, with two important exceptions. First is Resistance, which went down by 4% or roughly a third. Put a pin in that, because I will get back to it. The second is of course Separatists, increasing by half from 8% to 12%. I don’t know for sure, but I guess that this is the first even where Separatists were the 4th largest faction in 2.0 history. They never stood out as much as they do here. Other than that it might be noteworthy that the large factions continue to have largest shares of players.
So, on to conversion rate as last time. I want to show the same graph as last time. Top 32 at a 172 people event gives us a base conversion rate of 18.6%. We expect that many of each faction to advance. The result is even more extreme than it was in Corellia. Imperials, Resistance, and Separatists did much better. And Rebels and Scum did much worse!
Percentages are a bit tricky, that’s why I also did the other graph like last time: expected vs observed players. The expected show a range. That range is simply there to visualize that we will not see 6.7 players. Instead, we will get 6 or 7.
With a second event, we can also start comparing them. But for that I need to do a new graph. The different events have different player sizes (and possibly different cut sizes at some point). That changes the conversion rates and we can’t directly compare them anymore. But what we can do instead is to subtract the base rate from the observed cut conversion rate to see how much they differed. That way we reduce the two numbers to a single one and can now compare.
The result shows that most trends from Corellia got more extreme. Scum did even worse, Separatists did even better. But really outstanding is the difference for Resistance!
Time for the pin we put into Resistance: fewer people brought this faction now than last event. That means that the individual player has a larger effect than it did in Corellia – where the conversion rate was below the expectation. I’ve also experimented with Rey for some time now, and I see the allure. As did 13 out of the 18 Resistance players! You might remember how Lulo was at some point in basically every Resistance squad? Well, Rey is that now. And Zizi… well she’s even more that at 17/18 lists. Such a high rate for a single pilot is often a sign that the faction is otherwise lacking, and I believe we can say the same here.
Let’s go to the top 32 lists.
Several differences to Corellia can be seen. For a start, the bids are deeper than before and the average decreased from 198 to 197. We have 4 deep bids (189-192) instead of 1. The list with small bids of 0-1pt decreased from 20 to 14. Against my expectation, we did not see a large increase of high initiative pilots as I counted a small increase from 30 to 34 for i5-6 pilots. Half of the lists had at least one force point – though that’s underselling it. There are other ways to get passive modifications, and “force point” often works as placeholders. For example Soontir, the TIE Defenders, Phantoms, or Zizi get their free tokens and Boba has his rerolls. So the true number is a bit higher.
The obvious main story is the Spamtex list. I finished the last blog post on Corellia saying that it is too early to push the panic button. I still think that is true – the list remains on my watchlist because I am not sure how bad the situation is. But it is undeniable that this second data point is more extreme than the first, and that the players knew to expect Spamtex. And yet the list did better than before.
13 players started with a version of at least 4 Nantexans. One can be removed because he played Maul next to it and that should change the list sufficiently to reduce to 12. Of those, six picked the classic with 6 Nantexes, three more players picked 5 + something (Grievous, 404), and the remaining three had 4 + something (SunFac or 2x Grievous).
Here is the first crazy part: five of the six pure Spamtex lists made cut. Two of them downgraded one of their pilots. That seems to be a clever way to squeeze in both a bid and more upgrades. Additionally, Grievous with 4 PAAs also made cut. Anyway, seven out of twelve is quite the cut rate. 5/6 is ridiculous. The question is whether to treat 4-5+Grievous/SunFac as part of the rest or not. It seems that they are sufficiently different to not do that.
And the second crazy part: of these 7 Spamtex in the list cut, just one went 4-2 with good MoV. And just one went 6-0. But you know why? Because the Spamtex with 5-1 only lost the mirror match!
Not yet time to panic because we had just two events, but I am concerned.
Other highlights include DashGhost, of which two out of two made the cut.
Personally, I am a fan of the ReyWing list with Rey and two A-wings, often Zizi+Tallie. Three out of five of those made cut! The other two Resistance lists are Rey Zizi Nien (another favorite of mine) and a cool list with 4 T70 BB-Blues and Rose (the only one without Zizi by the way).
The honorable mention goes to Filip who is the trail-blazer we all needed: SloaneReaper with 5 TIE Aggressors. Before you laugh, please consider that Bohan Li at Spaceowls predicted that to be one of the most efficient imperial ships! Four others also tried their luck with Sloane but in RAC. One with 3 Interceptors, the other three with 4 TIE fighters – of which one made cut. So all SloaneLists tallied up means that 2/5 advanced, which would be big news if we had not the Spamtex to worry about.
I won’t bother with imperial aces as they are still good. For now, players settled on Vader+Soontir and something.
For Scum, we see the further decline of Boba. Nine players brought him, and the only BobaDengar list made it into cut. That further cements Dengar as a good choice, continuously flying under the radar.
First Order seems to “struggle” a bit. Put that in quotation marks because FO is rather well balanced at the moment, and that means they can seem to be bad when they are not. Kylo has not found a top list. Surprisingly for me, Holo and 3 SJEs made again cut.
Still no Leia or Braylen. And also no Wookies in Europe it seems, and also no IG88s. At least the droid swarms made it back, and 2/6 advancing is more than ok.
Conclusion: It remains interesting and Spamtex are clearly the list to beat. The win percentage was not yet dragged down. I’d expect more people jumping onto the hype train for Concord Dawn in Australia, and later Crait in New York. The idea of DashGhost and other Dash lists seems promising to me. Let’s keep watching.
And good luck to all players tomorrow in the cut. May the best
TIE Aggressor DashGhost player win!