Galaxies: Concord Dawn

This weekend sees the third Galaxies event. Concord Dawn happens at the timezone of Sydney, Australia, 19.-20. September. A total of 124 players showed up to play games. 32 got an invite for Coruscant, but only 16 will enter the cut.

By now, we’re laserfocused on Spamtex. The splash at Dathomir exceeded the initial showing at Corellia. What does Concord Dawn bring?

Fig. 1:Player attendance for the three events

Again another ring was added, and we can now compare the entire field for all three events. Outside is Concord Dawn and there were some clear changes. Rebels and FO increased a bit (18->19 and 12->14). Scum and Separatists increased a lot, from 18% to 24%, and from 12% to 21%.
If those increase then something must decrease. Resistance has a small dent, from 10% to 9%. Republic saw a stronger decrease from 3% to 9%. But boy oh boy Imperials crumbled. 21% at Dathomir, only 10% at Concord Dawn. It seems that Australia does not like the chances of Imperial lists in the current meta! Separatists with 27 lists total has to be a new record. I do not know of any event where they were close to the largest faction, Scum with 31 was within reach.

Fig. 2: Table for the different events

The cut conversion rate is a bit different. Only top 16 means that 16/124 gives us a 12.9% base conversion rate. So, simply based on numbers, we expect 4 Scum lists to make the cut, and between 3 and 4 Separatists. I want to add though that we should be a bit careful. 16 is a small number for 7 factions, and one or two extra/missing already skew the results quite a bit. Here’s what we get:

Fig. 3: Expected vs Observed

The good news is that 4 factions are very close to what we would see if every 8th person randomly advanced to cut, independent of their faction or list. Imperials, Scum, Resistance and Republic met the expectation. Two factions are disappointing: First Order by a bit, and Rebels by a bit more. They are all compensated by Separatists who got two extra lists into the cut.

And if you want to see everything at once:

Fig. 4: Blue shows the percentage of the field for a faction. Orange bars are the cut conversion, and the grey line is the base conversion rate.

One cool thing we can do now is to combine the three events. The 517 players fought for 80 spots in the cuts. That is a 15.6% base conversion rate. Here’s what we expect and observed:

Fig. 5: Expected+Observed for all three events!

Now we start to get a clearer picture. Rebels should have had twice as many lists in the cuts – and Separatists only half as many! Resistance and Republic are pretty spot on. First Order and Scum need apparently a bit of help – though we see in the current event that Scum might be on an upwards slope. Imperials do well. If you wonder about the cut conversion rates then you’ll see the same picture presented in a different way:

Fig. 6: Delta between cut conversion rate of a faction and the base rate of that event. Total has 80/517 as base rate.

And here are the top 16 lists:

Fig. 7: Points per ship for Top16 lists. The grey area shows total points of a list.

New is that Spamtex lists are more aware of their bids. They made 6/16 lists, though two are variations and not pure Spamtex.
Boba made the return to the cut, as 3 out of 7 lists with Boba+1 advanced. And cartel spacers show that massed 3agility lists continue to be strong. The TIE Aggressors repeat the success from Dathomir, as did the ReyWings list with Rey, Zizi and Tallie. This time we also see a Wookie list. The 5Y is an enigma to me, as those are RepublicYwings. The second imperial list in cut is an amazingly expensive combination of GrandInq with precognitive reflexes AND advanced sensors, plus Rexler with advanced sensors. Finally, FO sent their aces with Vonreg, Quickdraw and Kylo into the cut to represent them.

So let’s talk about Spamtex again. Maybe we thought it couldn’t get more extreme, but it did. I counted 22 spamtex-related lists out of 27 separatist lists total. They did pretty well.

Fig. 8: Spamtex-related lists.

14 of these finished 4-2 or better. If we’d had a top32 cut, we would see 11 instead of just 6. And 3 more skirted past due to MoV.

Overall, Spamtex had a winrate of 64%. That’s really good! A closer look shows that a total of 36 results were actually due to 18 mirror games. In fact, only 3 Spamtex players had no mirror game at all, and one player had to play 4 and still placed in the top 32! Removing those, the winrate increases to 70% (63/90).

Once I get the data via listfortress, I can take a closer look at some details. At a first glance, it seems that players try to counter Spamtex by using i5-6 pilots. I will be able to test that claim when we go towards Coruscant, but so far it’s just a hunch.

As far as I know, the cut should start in around 2 hours from posting this. Good luck to everyone (and gogo Matt!). Cheers!

3 thoughts on “Galaxies: Concord Dawn

  1. I appreciate the work you are putting into these breakdowns. The most stunning find is that Imp Trip Aces didn’t show, and a Imp Double Aces did. Wild.

    I only faced 1 Nantex list is Swiss, and despite flying well, I feel that I only won because of some dice luck (Rey got like 7 out of 10 evades). I’ll be playing Kieren flying Nantex in the first round cut, despite him saying that he wasn’t impressed by 6 Nantex. I hope I do well.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Thanks. TripAces, Dash, possibly Boba, and maybe 3agi spam lists might have best chances against them. I wonder why Australia didn’t want to try ImpAces.
      Yeah Mark mentioned the good evades, let’s hope you can repeat that a few more times! 😀

      Liked by 1 person

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